Introduction
At the dawn of the second von der Leyen Commission, the European Union (EU) faces a pivotal moment in its history. Rapid shifts in global power dynamics, profound social and economic disruptions, and the intensifying urgency of existential challenges such as climate change and technological transformation demand decisive action. In this volatile and uncertain landscape, the EU must redefine its strategies and priorities to ensure its relevance, strengthen its resilience, and assert its leadership on the global stage in the 21st century.
This book emerges from the EU Forward project, organised by Social Europe in collaboration with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. The project convened leading scholars and thinkers to reflect on the complex challenges confronting Europe and to chart a path forward. The result is a comprehensive exploration of contemporary politics and key policy domains, each examined through a lens of strategic urgency and opportunity. The opening chapter, written by Brigid Laffan, sets the stage by addressing the geopolitical and geoeconomic realities facing the EU. In a world shifting from unipolarity to multipolarity, the EU finds itself navigating an environment increasingly hostile to the rules-based multilateralism it champions. From managing relations with major powers like the United States and China to responding to disruptors like Russia, the chapter examines how the EU must adapt its tools and resources to remain a player in global affairs, not merely a bystander.
In Chapter 2, Catherine De Vries delves into the domestic political pressures that threaten the EU’s cohesion and functionality. The rise of radical right parties across Europe poses significant obstacles to meaningful reform and integration. By shifting from calls for EU exit to "reform Euroscepticism," these parties have injected a new layer of complexity into the European project. De Vries explores the strategies needed to counteract these forces while preserving the EU's capacity for collective action. Mark Blyth and Henning Meyer, in Chapter 3, discuss the impact of the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency and its implications for the EU. From potential trade wars to geopolitical unpredictability, the authors highlight how the EU must navigate a more transactional and confrontational transatlantic relationship. They argue for strategic resilience through internal unity, economic diversification, and the strengthening of key partnerships beyond Europe.
Chapter 4, authored by Karl Aiginger, turns the focus to industrial policy as a linchpin for Europe’s future. As the EU strives to balance economic growth with climate objectives, Aiginger argues for a comprehensive industrial strategy centered on the European Green Deal. The chapter examines how this policy can serve as both a roadmap for sustainable development and a counterbalance to the protectionist tendencies of global competitors like the U.S. and China.
Luc Soete takes a deep dive into Europe’s innovation challenges in Chapter 5. Despite its strong R&D foundations, the EU has struggled to translate research into productivity gains and technological leadership. Soete explores the "innovation gap" that separates Europe from its global peers, particularly in emerging technologies like AI and digitalization. The chapter offers actionable recommendations for overcoming structural barriers and fostering a culture of risk-taking and entrepreneurship. In Chapter 6, Jo Ritzen and Job Zomerplag examine the state of education and skills development in Europe. They highlight the pressing need for a cohesive EU-wide strategy to address declining educational outcomes, brain drain, and regional disparities. The authors argue that a robust and inclusive education agenda is critical to equipping Europeans with the skills needed to thrive in a changing world and to sustaining the EU’s competitiveness on the global stage.
Paul De Grauwe tackles Europe’s fiscal rules in Chapter 7, critiquing how the Stability and Growth Pact has stifled public investment and growth. He argues that the EU’s current fiscal framework is ill-suited to the demands of a rapidly evolving global economy and calls for a reimagined approach that prioritizes strategic investment over austerity. His analysis underscores the need for fiscal policies that align with the EU’s long-term goals of sustainability and resilience.
Chapter 8, by Dominic Afsharian, explores the concept of "Social Europe" and its precarious position in today’s policy agenda. Afsharian critiques the subordination of social policy to economic imperatives and offers a vision for reviving the EU’s commitment to social justice. From minimum income guarantees to an enhanced European Pillar of Social Rights, the chapter outlines the steps needed to rebuild trust and solidarity among European citizens.
Anton Hemerijck, Azizjon Bagadirov, and Robin Wilson, in Chapter 9, challenge conventional wisdom about the welfare state. They argue for a paradigm shift toward a "social investment" perspective that emphasizes equipping individuals with the tools to navigate life transitions and thrive in an era of precarious work and digital disruption. Their analysis demonstrates how a renewed focus on welfare can enhance both social cohesion and economic dynamism.
The concluding chapter, a conversation between Almut Möller and Henning Meyer, tackles the critical issue of strategic autonomy. As the EU grapples with growing security threats and economic vulnerabilities, the authors argue that autonomy is not merely a policy goal but a necessity for survival. They explore how the EU can strengthen its defence capabilities, secure its supply chains, and position itself as a credible actor in a volatile global order.
Each chapter in this book reflects the core ambition of the EU Forward project: to provide actionable insights and innovative solutions to the challenges shaping Europe’s future. As the EU stands at this crossroads, the path it chooses will have profound implications not only for its citizens but for the world at large. This book is both a diagnosis of the current moment and a call to action—a reminder that Europe’s ability to adapt and lead is contingent on its willingness to confront hard truths and embrace transformative change.